Econometric Assignment
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As part of the course requirements you have to undertake an econometric evaluation of an economic issue using data that you have gathered either from the host of data sets now available on the web, or that you have assembled yourself from data published in journals or in official sources.
The data set must contain a minimum of 3 variables, (one dependent variable and at least 2 right hand side variables to be added to a constant term). You should concentrate on estimating a multiple (rather than simple) regression model. You cannot use the data sets used in the problem sets or lectures. You must find your own data (with 2 exceptions see below).
You should have a minimum of 50 observations in your regressions.
The model should be a causal one, (ie the right hand side variables should explain the dependent variable, not the other way round). This also means, for example, that you should not estimate identities like a national accounts model of the form Y=C+I+G+(X-M). This is an accounting identity and so the coefficients shouldn’t be anything other than one, barring measurement error).
The econometric results should include a thorough statistical evaluation using the full range of (relevant) diagnostic tests highlighted during the course. Do not use tests just for the sake of it. There are no marks to be gained by doing countless irrelevant tests. Only use tests that are relevant to the type of data and economic relationship you are trying to estimate. (For the purposes of the project assume that a sample of 50 or more observations is enough to make any asymptotic tests valid).
The writer is free to choose the topic and data set. Please do not use the food data set provided. This is just an example data set.
One good way to find a topic to study is to read the economic pages of the broadsheet newspapers and/or academic articles summarised in overview journals like the:
Journal of Economic Perspectives or Journal of Economic Literature
American Economic Review, Economic Journal, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Labor Economics, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Finance
Data
There are a large variety of data sources on the internet that should meet your needs
Many UK macroeconomic statistics, (inflation, unemployment, gdp etc), can be downloaded from the Office for National Statistics website
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/index.html
UK Regional data can be found here
http://www.nomisweb.co.uk
The bized site also contains access to official UK data alongside company account data and some international data. http://www.bized.co.uk/learn/economics/index.htm
You can find stock market data at the Stock Exchange’s web site http://www.londonstockexchange.com/
or from yahoo http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EFTSE
or from the Bank of England http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/pages/default.aspx
A very good source of international data both cross section and time series is given at the Resources for Economists website http://rfe.org/showCat.php?cat_id=2
and also the Statlib website http://lib.stat.cmu.edu
The World Bank also has data http://worldbank.org
and there are lots of data and ideas at http://www.economagic.com/ and http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu
This is an Econometrics assignment and although there isn’t a particular focus, it is essential that the project outline is followed carefully in terms of the use of sources, data etc.
The project outline notes that you should not use the data sets in the Lectures.
-Project Example of Academic article as guide to layout and structure
-Past assignment examples which achieved 70+%
-The use of data used (Food Project data used)
-Feedback provided for a previous essay
Please included graphics, tables, diagrams (referenced and created).
You should aim for a maximum of 2,500 words or around 8 pages of text, 2 to 3 tables of results and 2 or 3 figures (not including the log file).
